White Noise Insanity

From Juan Coles Blog

Another friend, a Sunni sheikh of the Shammar tribe noted to me that thousands of former officers are prepared to assault the G[reen] Z[one]. It is no longer a matter of can they do it, they are only mulling over the timing. The breach of the Green Zone security the other day was a test of their ability to get in, and not a real attempt at a coup, though it is reported as such. Every Iraqi I talk to says unambiguously that the resistance attached to the former regime would take out the Shiite militias with barely a fight, but that the resistance will not commit wholesale revenge against the Shiite population. They just want to get rid of the "carpet baggers" from Iran. '

What would be the result of a brazen attack on the green zone even if it failed in the end?

The United States military would have to question the safety of those who work for the US and Iraqi governments from there. They also would have to review what protections they have, and what they need. It could turn out to be the Iraqi version of Tet, especially if the Sunni Baathists had any success at all. Because they would prove that not only can they set up car bombs in Sadr City, or attack Shiite dominated Ministries like the Ministry of Health, but the very symbol of American power and influence in the country, the Green Zone.

Such an attack three and a half years after the Iraqi Baathists were supposedly crushed by the American Army would embolden the Sunni insurgency. It would also raise more doubts here at home about this war. If we had been so successful in the invasion, and we had what we need in that country to achieve some sort of victory, how could the Baathists even dare to attempt such a daring attack, let alone carry it out.

There are questions what this would do inside the country.

How would the American military react, especially how would they reposition troops to either attempt to stop such an attack like this, (they must know it is being planned, if it is on the net.)

What will al Sadr and the Shiites do, if they see the Sunni’s attacking the Green zone, stand by and allow the US and Sunni forces to fight it out, or come to either sides aid. More interestingly could they use such an attack as a welcome diversion. They could react by attacking in other areas knowing the vast US response will be in defense of the green zone, and not their timely attacks on Sunni forces they want to defeat in Baghdad and elsewhere.

The situation inside Iraq is fragile at best, and after this weeks attacks in sadr City, and on the ministry of Health, the Sunni’s are making a statement they are a force to be reckoned with, but are they willing to step it up a notch, and attack directly into the center of the American power presence in Baghdad?